Foreign Exchange Market Update

September 30, 2026

United States

Chicago area business activity rebounded substantially in September. Chicago business barometer spiked from 47.1 in August to 58.8 in September, with a reading above 50 indicating growth. The headline index rebound came as the production index soared 15.5 points, returning to expansionary territory and reaching its highest level since May.

The new orders index also surged by 13.3 points, with some respondents attributing the increase to a seasonal improvement in orders. The supplier deliveries index also shot up by 9.6 points, while the order backlogs index jumped by 8.4 points but remained in contraction. Meanwhile, the employment index fell by 4.3 points, returning to contraction after one month in expansionary territory. The prices index also eased by 3.7 points, although the distribution of responses continues to indicate upward price pressure. 09/30/2026 - 10:15:00 (RTTNews)

The Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing consumer prices in the U.S. rose slightly in August. The Commerce Department said its personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased by 0.3% in August following a 0.1% uptick in July. The report also said the annual rate of growth of the PCE price index came in at 3.4% in August, unchanged from the reading in July. Excluding food and energy prices, the core PCE price index rose by 0.2% in August after inching up by 0.1% in July. The annual rate of growth of the core PCE price index came in at 3.0% in August, unchanged from the reading in July.

The Federal Reserve's preferred readings on consumer price inflation were included in the Commerce Department's report on personal income and spending. The report said personal income increased by 0.2% in August after rising by 0.3% in July. The Commerce Department said personal spending jumped by 0.9% in August after edging up by 0.1% in July. 09/30/2026 - 09:59:00 (RTTNews)

Private sector employment in the U.S. jumped in September. Private sector employment shot up by 90,000 jobs in September after rising by 36,000 jobs in August. Hiring accelerated for the first time since May, led by job growth in the education and health care and leisure and hospitality sectors. Meanwhile, employment in the financial activities and professional and business services sectors showed weakness. 09/30/2026 - 09:31:00 (RTTNews)

Eurozone

Euro traded at 1.1345 against USD at 9:00 AM PST

Germany's import price inflation accelerated further in August to the highest level in more than three-and-a-half years. Import prices increased at a faster pace of 8.3% on a yearly basis, following July's 6.8% rise. Moreover, this was the highest rate since December 2022, when prices surged 9.6%. The index rose 1.0% monthly in August after a 0.2% increase in July. The acceleration in the annual price growth was mainly driven by a 43.0% surge in energy costs, which rose only 7.5% in the prior month.

Excluding energy, import price inflation was 5.1% versus 0.3% in July. Inflation based on intermediate goods accelerated from 0.6% to 11.0%, while costs for consumer goods were 0.5% less expensive compared to last year. Export price inflation rose from 4.2% in July to 4.7%, the largest since February 2023. 09/30/2026 - 07:52:00 (RTTNews)

Germany's unemployment increased in September. The number of people out of work increased by 12,000 from August. This followed an increase of 5,000 in August. At the same time, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4% in September. There were 1.76 million unemployed in August, up 9,000 from July. The unadjusted jobless rate rose from 3.9% in the last year to 4.3% in August. 09/30/2026 - 04:46:00 (RTTNews)

French inflation accelerated in September on energy and fresh food prices. Consumer price inflation rose from 2.4% in August to 3.0%. A similar higher rate was last seen in February 2024. EU harmonized inflation climbed markedly from 2.6% in the prior month to 3.4%. The rate was seen at 3.0%. Driven by petroleum products and gas prices, energy prices surged 21.2%. Fresh food prices were up 9.9%, and services inflation rose from 1.9% to 2.2%. Meanwhile, manufactured product prices dropped 0.3%. Monthly, consumer prices declined 0.3%, reversing a 0.7% rise in August. Likewise, the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) slid 0.4%, in contrast to the 0.7% rise in the prior month.

Household spending decreased in August, reflecting the falls in energy and food consumption. Household spending was down 0.5%, in contrast to the 0.4% rise in July. Household energy expenditure contracted 2.3%, driven by the downturn in purchases of petroleum products. Similarly, food consumption slid 0.4%. Meanwhile, engineered goods spending grew 0.3%. Producer price inflation in the domestic market advanced from 3.5% in July to 4.8%. Monthly, producer prices grew 1.0%, following July's 1.3% increase. 09/30/2026 - 04:19:00 (RTTNews)

Consumer price inflation in Italy accelerated in September to the highest level in three years amid soaring energy costs. Consumer price inflation climbed to 4.2% in September from August's 3.3%. Moreover, this was the highest inflation rate since September 2023, when prices rose 5.3%. Inflation based on regulated energy products rose notably from 18.6% to 25.9%, and that in non-regulated energy products quickened from 17.0% to 22.2%.

The annual price growth in unprocessed food accelerated from 3.8% to 5.5%, and transport-related services inflation rose from 1.1% to 1.6%. Excluding energy and unprocessed food, core inflation stood at 1.7% compared to 1.5% in August. Monthly, consumer prices went up 0.7%. The EU measure of inflation was 4.1% in September, up from 3.2% in the previous month. Monthly, the HICP increased by 2.0%. 09/30/2026 - 08:20:00 (RTTNews)

United Kingdom GDP Growth Up to 0.5%

British Pound traded at 1.3266 against USD at 9:00 AM PST

The UK economy expanded in the second quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) posted a quarterly growth of 0.5% in the June quarter. This followed an increase of 0.6% in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the services sector expanded by 0.6% and construction grew 0.8%. On the other hand, the production sector shrank by 0.1%. On the expenditure side, there was a 0.3% increase in real household final consumption expenditure. Meanwhile, government spending dropped 0.5%. Gross fixed capital formation rose 0.9%, and business investment climbed 1.8%.

Excluding the alignment adjustments, chained volume inventories fell by GBP 3.4 billion in the second quarter, mainly because of a reduction in manufacturing inventories. The trade deficit for goods and services was estimated at 1.6% of nominal GDP in the second quarter. The UK current account deficit, including trade in precious metals, narrowed by GBP 1.2 billion to GBP 19.9 billion, or 2.5% of GDP in the second quarter. 09/30/2026 - 04:35:00 (RTTNews)

Australia Inflation Rises in August

Australia's consumer price inflation accelerated in August on higher housing and transport costs. Consumer price inflation rose from 3.5% in July to 4.0%. Inflation continues to remain above the central bank target range of 2-3%. Nonetheless, housing was the largest contributor to consumer price inflation in August, up 5.7% from last year. The increase in housing costs reflected rising prices for both new dwellings and electricity. Transport was the second largest contributor, rising 5.6% due to higher automotive fuel prices.

However, excluding automotive fuel and electricity, trimmed mean inflation remained at 3.6% for the third straight month in August. Monthly, overall consumer prices rose 0.4%, following a 1.0% rise in July. Automotive fuel prices surged 14.8% in August from the previous month, driven by higher global oil prices and the unwinding of the government relief measures.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point to a 15-year high as some of the risks to inflation materialized. The board unanimously decided to raise the cash rate target to 4.60%, marking the third-rate hike from the beginning of the year. 09/30/2026 - 01:42:00 (RTTNews)