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March 28, 2024
First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits edged slightly lower in the week ended March 23rd, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday. The report said initial jobless claims dipped to 210,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level of 212,000. The Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average also edged down to 211,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 211,750. Meanwhile, the report said that continuing claims, a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance, rose by 24,000 to 1.819 million in the week that ended March 16. The four-week moving average of continuing claims also increased to 1,802,750, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 1,799,250.
On a trend basis, continued claims are up about 8%, suggesting unemployed individuals find it more difficult to obtain new jobs. The Fed doesn't require significant weakening in the labor market to begin cutting interest rates but does need to be confident the job market is balanced enough to support a continued slowing in wage growth. Next Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its more closely watched report on employment in March. 03/28/2024 – 09:56:00 (RTTNews)
The U.S. economy grew by more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter of 2023, the Commerce Department revealed in a report released on Thursday. Revised data showed real gross domestic product (GDP) surged by 3.4% in the fourth quarter compared to the previously reported 3.2% jump. The Commerce Department said the stronger than previously estimated growth primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment.
While the strong growth to end 2023 was impressive on its own, it also helps explain the economic resilience we've seen throughout the first quarter, as the positive momentum from the end of last year has carried over into 2024. Despite the upward revision, the GDP growth in the fourth quarter still reflects a notable slowdown from the 4.9% spike seen in the third quarter. The deceleration primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and slowdowns in federal government spending and residential fixed investment.
Meanwhile, the report said the GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, state and local government spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment. The positive contributions were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment and an increase in imports, which are subtracted from the calculation of GDP.
On the inflation front, the increase in consumer prices in the fourth quarter was at 1.8%, while the rise in core prices, which exclude food and energy prices, was revised to 2.0% from 2.1%. 03/28/2024 – 10:27:00 (RTTNews)
Eurozone M3 Growth Improves; Private Sector Credit Rises at Faster Pace
Eurozone money supply logged faster growth, and private sector credit growth accelerated, data from the European Central Bank (ECB) showed on Thursday. The broad monetary aggregate M3 climbed 0.4% annually, much faster than the 0.1% rise in January. This was the third consecutive rise and also the fastest since last June. The annual growth rate of credit to the private sector increased to 0.7% in February from 0.4% in January. Likewise, adjusted loans to the private sector grew 0.7% annually, following last month's 0.4% rise.
Among the borrowing sectors, the annual growth rate of adjusted household loans remained steady at 0.3% in February. Meanwhile, growth in loans to non-financial corporations doubled to 0.4% from 0.2%. For the European Central Bank, data shows that at the current pace of lending, investment will remain very muted. Interest rate cuts in the second half of the year should cause net lending growth to pick up. However, rate cuts later in the year will lead to only a gradual rebound. 03/28/2024 – 07:07:00 (RTTNews)
Joblessness in Germany increased less in February despite the economy undergoing severe downward pressures. The Federal Labor Agency reported that the number of people out of work increased only by 4,000 in March. The unemployment rate came in at 5.9%, the same as in February. Unemployment and underemployment did decrease in March, but less than usual this month, Federal Employment Agency said. The economic downturn is still having an impact on the labor market.
The adjusted jobless rate held steady at 3.2% in February. The number of unemployed totaled 1.41 million in February, which was an increase of 5,000 in January. On an unadjusted basis, the jobless rate was 3.5%, up from 3.0% in the previous year. Employment increased by 0.4% or 194,000 on year in February. The long-term upward trend in the labor market continued at a slower pace. 03/28/2024 – 09:11:00 (RTTNews)
Italy's consumer confidence decreased for the first time in five months in March. Consumer sentiment dropped to 96.5 in March from 97.0 in the previous month. Among components, the personal climate index fell to 94.6 in March from 95.2 in February. The index measuring the current climate decreased to 96.0 from 97.0, while the economic climate remained almost stable at 101.9. The future climate index rose somewhat to 97.2 from 97.1. The composite business confidence index improved to 97.0 in March from 95.9 in February.
The index measuring sentiment among manufacturers climbed to a 7-month high of 88.6 from 87.5. In construction, the index rose from 102.5 to 105.8. Similarly, confidence strengthened in both market services and retail trade. 03/28/2024 – 07:33:00 (RTTNews)
The U.K. Confirmed a mild recession. Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by an unrevised 0.3% after a 0.1% drop in the third quarter. The U.K. economy grew only 0.1% in 2023, much weaker than the 4.3% expansion in 2022. Excluding 2020, which was affected by the coronavirus pandemic, this was the lowest annual change in real GDP since the financial crisis in 2009. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, real GDP declined 0.2% in the fourth quarter.
There was a fall in the volume of net trade, gross capital formation, and household consumption in the fourth quarter, partially offset by an increase in government consumption. Household spending fell 0.1% after declining 0.9% in the third quarter. Meanwhile, government spending grew by 0.1%, revised from the initial estimate of a fall of 0.3%. Growth in gross fixed capital formation was revised down to 0.9% from 1.4%. Within this, business investment increased 1.4%, following a 2.8% drop in the preceding quarter. The trade deficit for goods and services was 1.1% of GDP in the fourth quarter, revised up from the first estimate deficit of 1.6%. Timely indicators suggest the economy probably exited recession in the first quarter, and the economic recovery is already underway. The recession in the consumer sector may already be over, and the recovery in consumer spending will soon start to gather pace. 3/28/2024 – 09:07:00 (RTTNews)
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